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Brazil crop to total 49.2m bags in 2017/18: Rabobank

Coffee sacksRabobank’s survey of the Brazilian coffee crop in 2017/18 has predicted that the world’s largest producer should yield a total of 49.2 million 60-kilogram bags for the season.

This will be comprised of 36.2 million bags of Arabica and 12.5 million bags of Robusta, the survey states.

“The main reason for the rather humble 2017/18 Arabica number is the fact that last year’s Arabica production was very good, and trees are in a clear off-cycle in many regions,” the report states. “The very high pruning rates increase the prospects for a bumper Arabica crop in 2018/19.”

The report states that excellent cherry to green bean conversions have also meant that Rabobank has increased its estimate of the 2016/17 Arabica crop from 40.4 million to 42 million bags.

In terms of the Robusta crop, Rabobank says 
that while tough growing conditions and historically high prices for black pepper have seen some crop conversion away from coffee, that threat should ease as pepper prices have now eased.

“Even though the area likely declined in Espírito Santo this year, mainly due to a shift to pepper, we believe the prospects are good,” the report states. “The branch growth is lacklustre for the time being, and the 2018 harvest will, in all likelihood, not be a record one. But deeper and bigger reservoirs (which were near full capacity), and a further transition from spray irrigation to drip irrigation keep prospects quite bright for the future of conilons there.”

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