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Coffee year 2015/16 ends with 3 million bag deficit: ICO

Coffee bagsGlobal coffee production reached 151.3 million bags in the 2015/16 coffee year, 3.3 million bags short of the amount consumed over the same period, according to a report from the International Coffee Organization.

However, the market has remained well supplied by stocks accumulated during surplus years in 2012/13 and 2013/14, the ICO says. Stocks in importing countries reached 24.2 million bags at the end of June 2016, their highest level since September 2009, which will give a buffer against any short-term supply concerns.

Total exports in August came to 9.8 million bags, up 9.5 per cent on the same month last year. Shipments from Colombia increased by 16.7 per cent following the resolution of the truckers strike, with Vietnam also estimated 32.3 per cent higher as farmers take advantage of higher prices. Exports from Brazil were 7.4 per cent lower but still relatively high on 2.7 million bags, while Indonesia continued to register lower exports, down 28.4 per cent compared to last year.

As a result, total exports for the first eleven months of the coffee year (October to August) are estimated by the ICO to be 1 per cent lower than the same period last year on 102.8 million bags, with shipments of Arabica up 3.4 per cent and Robusta down 7.7 per cent.

In Brazil, production for 2015/16 is estimated by the ICO at 48.4 million bags, down 5.3 per cent compared to the previous year as the drought in 2014 reduced output, particularly of Robusta. Nevertheless, Brazil recorded a record export performance of 36.9 million bags from April 2015 to March 2016, which given a domestic consumption of 20.5 million bags suggests a significant stock drawdown of nearly 9 million bags.

Production in Vietnam is maintained at 27.5 million bags, up 3.8 per cent on last year, but dry weather at the beginning of this year is likely to reduce output in 2016/17. Colombia has ended 2015/16 with a total production of 14 million bags, its highest volume since 1992/93, although the potential development of La Niña could affect the 2016/17 crop. The 2015/16 coffee year was also a good one for Indonesian production, estimated at 11.5 million bags, although again the outlook for 2016/17 is less positive following adverse weather conditions earlier this year.

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