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July coffee prices reach 2019-high despite drift downwards

From the August 2019 issue.

According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO) July 2019 market report, the monthly average of the ICO composite indicator rose by three per cent to 103.01 US cents per pound in July 2019. This marks the highest monthly average since November 2018.

However, the daily composite indicator started at a high of 107.87 US cents per pound on 4 July and fell to 98.57 US cents per pound by the end of the month.

The ICO says concerns over frost that supported prices in late June and early July dissipated by the end of the month.

Average prices for Arabica group indicators rose in July 2019.

Prices for Brazilian Naturals experienced the largest increase, averaging 105.43 US cents per pound, 4.7 per cent higher than in June 2019.

Other Milds increased 4.4 per cent to 135.47 US cents per pound while Colombian Milds rose 3.1 per cent to 137.63 US cents per pound.

Given the larger increase in Other Milds prices, the differential between Colombian Milds and Other Milds fell by 42.6 per cent to 2.16 US cents per pound. In contrast to the Arabica group indicator prices, Robusta prices decreased by 0.1 per cent to 73.93 US cents per pound, which is 13.3 per cent lower than the start of the coffee year.

In June, the arbitrage between Arabica and Robusta coffees, as measured on the New York and London futures markets, increased for the fourth consecutive month to 44.18 US cents per pound, 13.2 per cent more than in June 2019.

In June 2019, world coffee exports rose by 2.8 per cent to 10.94 million bags, compared to June 2018, while exports in the first nine months of coffee year 2018/19 rose by 6.5 per cent to 97.28 million bags.

World production in coffee year 2018/19 increased by an estimated 1.9 per cent to 168.77 million bags, led by an 18.5 per cent increase in Brazil’s production for the crop year ending March 2019.

Global consumption in 2018/19 grew by an estimated 2.1 per cent to 164.84 million bags. Although consumption growth outpaced production, the cumulative surplus over the last two seasons rose to eight million bags.

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