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Coffee prices rise in July after three months of decline

In July 2020, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) composite indicator increased by 4.7 per cent to an average of 103.66 US cents per pound, following three months of declines.

The daily composite indicator reached a low of 98.59 US cents per pound on 10 July before climbing to 114.25 US cents per pound on the last day of the month. Strengthening of the Brazilian Real in the second half of the month supported prices in July as well as concerns over temporary tightness in supply.

Prices for all coffee groups rose in July 2020, though the largest month-on-month increase occurred for Brazilian Naturals, which grew by 5.8 per cent to 97.96 US cents per pound.

Global exports in June 2020 amounted to 10.57 million bags, 5.3 per cent lower than June 2019, while shipments in the first nine months of coffee year 2019/20 reached 95.36 million bags, 5.1 per cent lower than the same period last year.

The majority of coffee continues to be exported as green coffee, accounting for 90.4 per cent of total coffee shipped between October 2019 and June 2020. Soluble coffee shipments accounted for 9.1 per cent of the total, an increase of 1 percentage point from one year ago, while roasted coffee shipments represented just 0.5 per cent.

A 2.9 per cent decrease in global production to 168.01 million bags has contributed to the lower volume of shipments.

Arabica output is estimated to fall by 5.4 per cent to 95.37 million bags, due to a decline in production in seven of the 10 largest Arabica producers, while Robusta production is estimated to increase by 0.5 per cent to 72.63 million bags.

Global coffee consumption is estimated to rise by 0.3 per cent to 168.49 million bags, which is below the average annual growth rate of 2.2 per cent over the last two decades. The ICO expects strong growth at the start of the season to be offset by a global economic slowdown.

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